INVENTORY CONTINUES TO CONTROL OUR MARKET
2018 marks the reversal of dwindling sales in our valley for the last few years. The overall number of sales is up 12%, home sales are up 33%, and condo/townhome sales are up 10%. While the number of single-family vacant land sales did not increase in 2018 (down 22%), available vacant land inventory hit a 30 year low, by year’s end.
For the past 10 years, we have watched available inventory shrink from an average of 530 listings at the end of 2008— the beginning of The Great Recession— to all-time low of 258 listings by year’s end 2018. At the same time in 2008, the number of sales had just fallen 53% in one year. Since then, the number of sales has been on a slow recovery, but is still about 25% less than 2007.
While the number of overall sales has been slow to recover, the average and median listing and sale prices are breaking records in both home and condo/townhome sales. Again, the only segment yet to show signs of recovery is residential vacant land. Below is a chart depicting the effects of low inventory versus average and median list prices for single-family homes.
Is it Time to Sell? Control of one’s financial future requires knowing not only when and where to buy investment properties, but also when to sell them. It’s an individual decision based on your circumstances at the time. In most cases, the game plan you follow will dictate when you sell. However, personal circumstances, and most importantly, market conditions, can and should change the game plan at a moment’s notice. With the market at an all-time high, if you’ve been waiting for the right time to sell, the time may have arrived. Call us today for a free comparative market analysis, and to discuss your game plan.
Bargain Shoppers While the upper end of the residential vacant land market ($3+ million) is taking off again (up 113%), and the segment below $500,000 has only two listings, the $500,000 to $1 million segment is saturated with inventory—particularly north of Jack- son to Moose. There are currently 30 lots listed in this price range, many listed at pre-recession prices. To learn more about this segment please contact us at 307-690-4004 or david@jacksonholereport.com.
For the last 24 years, we have tracked every single free-market transaction in Jackson Hole. As part of our research we always look for trends, good or bad, to help predict the future for our clients and customers. After reviewing the 2018 stats, it’s very clear that we have entered into a new normal for Jackson Hole. Starting in 2013, the average number of sales per year in the valley has been 638, whereas the average number of sales per year from 2003 to 2007 (pre-recession) was 929. During 2003 to 2007, we had an average of 465 listings at year’s end, whereas the last five years we have averaged 323 listings at year’s end, with only 258 listings at the end of 2018. When you compare these two time periods, the number of sales today is down an average of 31%, and inventory levels are down 31%.
Current Inventory As you may have read in previous reports, we spent all of 2016 inventorying every free-market deed in the entire valley, an exhaustive process that allows us to say, with complete confidence, that we have the most comprehensive real estate database in the valley. Simply put, we know this market better than anyone else. Our in-depth, unparalleled knowledge makes us the most thorough and trusted advisors to. So whether you are a buyer or seller, let our knowledge empower you in your next real estate transaction.
THE OVERALL MARKET
The year closed with the overall market—all home, lot, condo and commercial transactions or listings— reporting 12% more sales than 2017, for a total of 677 properties sold in 2018 in Teton County. The overall dollar volume shot up to $1.272 billion (up 25%). The Luxury Market (over $3 million) exploded, with a 74% increase in the number of sales. The increase in overall sales can be attributed to three main factors: an increase in single-family home and condo/town-house sales, up 33% and 10% respectively, and the overall available inventory, which is at the “LOWEST” level in 30 years.
The hot spot in 2018 was under $1 million, where 47% of all transactions occurred. The steady demand in this segment—in tandem with the dearth of homes listed under $1 million (only 6 are available valley-wide)—suggests prices will continue to climb in 2019. We predict buyers will continue to flock to our market, but our underlying concern remains: How much well-priced inventory will be available for buyers?
Vacant land sales still sluggish: While all other segments of the market have recovered from the recession, residential vacant land sales still lag behind (218 sales in 2007 vs. 89 in 2018). Excessive inventory, non-motivated sellers, construction cost, and lack of available general contractors have been the main reasons for the slow recovery. While the average sale price increased 32% in 2018, the number of sales dropped 22% to 89, and the number of active listings at year’s end dropped 8% to 92 listings. NOTE: The 92 residential vacant land listings represent the lowest available inventory in over 30 years. This lack of inventory should help values for 2019, especially in the under $1 million segment.
Overall real estate currently under contract: At year’s end, there were 70 properties under contract with an average list price of $3.6 million (up 66%) and a median list price of $2.395 million (up 66%). Of the 70 properties under contract, 22 are in the Town of Jackson, with a combined list price of $37 million, and 27 are on the Westbank, with a combined list price of over $135 million.
Current overall available inventory has decreased 11% when compared to the close of 2017, making year-end 2018 the “LOWEST” level of overall available inventory in more than 30 years. The average list price is up 9%, the median list price did not change, and dollar volume is right at $1 billion. NOTE: The under $1 million segment reported the most current active listings, with 69 (down 12%), and the $1-$2 million segment comes in a close second with 62 listings. The $1-$2 million segment logged 188 sales in 2018 (up 21%). Also noteworthy, there are currently 58 single-family homes listed for $3+ million.
The Jackson Hole Report is the oldest, most accurate and comprehensive real estate market report in Teton County, WY. We derive our statistics from a privately maintained database that tracks every single sale, not just the transactions reported through MLS.
All of our valley-wide analyses have been updated as of the end of 2018, and are available online at jacksonholerealestatereport.com/overall-deeded-parcels.
*Report courtesy of and created by David and Devon Viehman. While other local Real Estate Brokers attempt to report on the local real estate market, the Hole Report is the only one to track every single transaction.
*All statistics are supplied by sources that have been deemed reliable but are not guaranteed.
*All statistics quoted in this newsletter are based on sales in 2018 compared to sales in 2017.
*Median sale price is the cost of a property that has an equal number of sales above and below it on the price scale.
*Average sale price is the total combined dollar volume divided by the number of sales.
*In this report, “overall” refers to all sales in Teton County combined (homes, lots, condos, commercial, ranch), minus Alta, WY.
*The term “Market Value” means the value of property in terms of what it can be sold for on the open market; current value.
© Copyright 1995 – 2019 by David E. Viehman and Devon Viehman. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without explicitly written permission from David E. Viehman.